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Airlines across the globe are cancelling thousands of flights as the ongoing conflict in Iran pushes jet fuel prices to unprecedented levels, intensifying pressure on the aviation sector.
Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows that nearly one in every 20 scheduled flights was cancelled on Monday. This represents a sharp increase compared with the same period last year, reflecting growing strain on airline operations.
The surge in cancellations follows a dramatic rise in fuel costs. Jet fuel prices, which stood at $742 per metric tonne a year ago, have climbed beyond $1,710. The escalation is largely linked to supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route responsible for transporting roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil.
Crude oil markets have also reacted strongly, with Brent crude prices reaching as high as $116 per barrel during early trading on Monday. Analysts warn that refining jet fuel requires more crude oil than petrol or diesel, amplifying the impact of supply constraints on aviation fuel availability.
Concerns are now shifting from price increases to potential shortages. According to a report by the Financial Times, the United Kingdom is expected to receive its final known shipment of jet fuel from the Middle East this week.
Aviation analyst Alex Macheras cautioned that multiple markets could face severe fuel shortages within days, including major European airport hubs. He indicated that some airports have begun advising airlines to prepare for scenarios where fuel may not be available.
The disruption is not confined to Europe. Airlines across Asia, Africa, and South America are implementing contingency plans, including additional refuelling stops, as the supply situation deteriorates.
Several carriers have already announced capacity reductions. Air New Zealand has cut 1,100 flights through early May, while Scandinavian airline group SAS plans to cancel 1,000 flights next month, primarily affecting domestic routes.
Meanwhile, Vietnam Airlines has warned it may reduce monthly flights by 10 to 20 percent next quarter if jet fuel prices reach between $160 and $200 per barrel. This could impact up to 18 percent of its international services and more than a quarter of its domestic operations.
In the United States, United Airlines has already reduced capacity by approximately 5 percent on less profitable routes, becoming the first major US carrier to take such measures in response to rising fuel costs.
Chief executive Scott Kirby said sustained high oil prices could increase the airline’s expenses by $11 billion, potentially forcing ticket prices to rise by around 20 percent to maintain profitability. He noted that fares have already increased by 15 to 20 percent in recent weeks, warning that higher prices are likely to dampen travel demand.
Kirby added that in a worst-case scenario, oil prices could climb to $175 per barrel and remain above $100 through 2027.
Beyond fuel-related challenges, the conflict has also disrupted travel across the Middle East. Major European carriers, including British Airways, Air France-KLM, and Lufthansa, have suspended multiple routes to and from the region.
Cirium data indicates that approximately 7,049 out of 104,618 scheduled flights—around 7 percent—were cancelled globally on Monday. By comparison, 4,797 out of 102,132 flights, or 4.7 percent, were cancelled on the same day last year.
The impact has been particularly severe in North America, where cancellations reached 14.6 percent of departing flights, significantly higher than the 4.4 percent recorded a year earlier.
Source: The Telegraph
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